September 2024
September 2024
SEPTEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS AND TRUMP DEAD EVEN IN FINAL STRETCH
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Sep 09, 2024, 06:00 ET
47% OF VOTERS APPROVE OF HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE AS VICE PRESIDENT BUT 52% APPROVE OF JOB TRUMP DID AS PRESIDENT
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Sept. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris’ favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating.
Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy. Download key results here.
“Harris has drawn to dead even but Trump has an edge in the underlying numbers given his higher job approval and the overall low approval of the Biden administration,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO.
CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK
- The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.
- Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris. Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.
- 50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.
CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES
- Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.
- Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.
- 49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.
LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION
- Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.
- Less than half of voters approve of Biden’s performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).
- 47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.
PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
- 63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.
- 42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.
- 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO
- 69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.
- 71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.
- More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).
- 57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.
The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.
September 2024
September 2024
September 2024
July 2024
July 2024
July 2024
July 2024
JULY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS RESETS RACE TO PRE-DEBATE LEVELS FOLLOWING HER ENTRANCE; TRUMP HOLDS LEAD
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Jul 30, 2024, 08:45 ET
79% OF VOTERS APPROVE OF BIDEN’S DECISION TO STEP DOWN
KAMALA HARRIS ENJOYS A 9 POINT JUMP IN FAVORABILITY FOLLOWING HER ANOINTMENT AS THE FRONTRUNNER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY 3 POINTS, DOWN FROM HIS JUNE 7 POINT LEAD ON BIDEN
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., July 30, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The new poll found that after an unprecedented month in American politics that witnessed a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden stepping aside in favor of Vice President Harris running as the Democratic candidate in November, the horserace has reset to a 3-point lead for Trump, 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided.
Both Trump and Harris have benefited from a jump in favorability due to these events, now tied at 48% and 47% favorability, respectively. Nevertheless, with 24% of voters saying they could change their mind, the matchup is highly competitive.
“The Democratic Party has recovered from what was a Titanic — the iceberg of age was sinking them rapidly,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Kamala Harris has come with lifeboats to put the race back where it was.”
The July poll covers public opinion on the candidates and the GOP policy platform coming out of the Republican National Convention. Download key results here.
HARRIS RE-ENERGIZES DEMOCRATS
- 79% of voters approve of Biden’s decision to step down, and 55% approve of his endorsement of Harris including 92% of Democrats.
- Compared to June, more Democrats say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (+5 points), and less Independents are unsure of who they would vote for (-10 points). Most of those undecided Independent voters say they would vote for Harris (Harris: +7 points; Trump: +3 points).
- Harris performs better among minority voters with the support of a plurality of women (48%), Black (67%), and Hispanic (47%) voters.
- 24% of voters say they have not made up their mind on who they will vote for, including 20% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and 41% of Independents.
BIDEN’S DECISION TO STEP ASIDE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON APPROVAL RATINGS
- Biden’s approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from June.
- 54% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, up 2 points from June. Among minority voters, 53% of Hispanic voters and 40% of Black voters approve.
- Across political parties, inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally. 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is worsening, especially among women (53%), Hispanic (51%), and rural (57%) voters.
- 65% of Black voters approve of the Democratic Party, while 59% of white voters and 52% of Hispanic voters disapprove.
HARRIS WINS ON PERSONALITY BUT IS SEEN AS CONTINUITY OF BIDEN, DIVERGING FROM ELECTORATE ON KEY POLICY PREFERENCES
- Between the two candidates, more voters believe Harris has the right temperament, is more trustworthy, and is more honest, while more voters perceive Trump as a fighter and someone who will get things done.
- 67% of voters say Harris will continue Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy. Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.
- A majority of voters oppose open borders (67%), ending private healthcare options (68%), and mandating the replacement of gas cars with electric vehicles (72%) — but a majority believe Harris supports those policies (borders: 69%; healthcare: 53%; electric vehicles: 72%).
- Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Harris.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT GOP PLATFORM COMING OUT OF THE CONVENTION
- A majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives like protecting social security and Medicare, ending inflation, and stopping violence and crime, including over 89% of Republicans and over 79% of Independents across every policy issue.
- 33% of voters think the Republican Party left out abortion from its policy platform because the party believes it is a state decision. A plurality of Democratic (31%), 18-24 year-old (23%), and Black (24%) voters believe the party has a secret plan to ban abortion.
- 45% of voters and 76% of Republicans approve of J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate, but roughly half of voters say the selection has no impact on their vote.
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL IN THE FACE OF HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS, WANT GAZA TO BE ADMINISTERED BY ARAB NATIONS
- 66% of voters believe Israel should retaliate if Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into the north (age 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 82%).
- 82% of voters say Hamas should be removed from power in Gaza, consistent with June sentiment.
- A plurality of voters (38%) think Gaza should be administered by a new authority set up through negotiations with Arab nations.
The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted within the United States on July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.