October 2024
October 2024
October 2024
October 2024
OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS AHEAD BY ONE POINT NATIONALLY BUT TRUMP LEADS WITH BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTERS
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Oct 14, 2024, 9:54 PM EDT
MAIL-IN VOTER BEHAVIOR EVENS OUT ACROSS PARTY ID, ONLY A 7-POINT GAP BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS (DOWN 12 POINTS FROM NOVEMBER 2020)
85% OF VOTERS SAY CBS SHOULD RELEASE FULL TRANSCRIPT OF HARRIS 60 MINUTES INTERVIEW
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Download key results here.
“There is no definitive answer – it’s about as close a race as you can possibly get, well within the confidence interval of any poll,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Harris has lost some momentum from when she was first nominated but is still driving strong messages around her personality and some of her economic measures, while Trump leads on immigration, crime, and foreign policy but has been less effective on economic messaging.”
HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES
- 81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).
- Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.
- There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).
- 50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).
- Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).
- 14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.
- Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).
CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY
- Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.
- 63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).
- Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.
- Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.
CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS
- 85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).
- Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).
- 58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.
- 38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.
- 67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.
APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND
- Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).
- 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.
- Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).
- 61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION
- 52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.
- 73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.
- 63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).
- 63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
- 65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.
The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.
October 2024
December 2023
DECEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: MOST VOTERS WANT THE U.S. TO SUPPORT ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Dec 18, 2023, 11:21 ET
WIDE GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL PERSISTS: MOST 18-24 VOTERS SEE JEWS AS OPPRESSORS
BIDEN’S IMMIGRATION APPROVAL RATING DROPS 8 POINTS TO 38% IN THE LAST MONTH
ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS RISE BUT 55% STILL FEEL WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Dec. 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here.
“There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates.”
AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
- 65% of voters think the U.S. should be supporting Israel in its war against Hamas; 65% separately think the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
- 54% of voters support giving $14 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support giving an additional $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Republicans are most likely to support the aid to Israel and Democrats most support aid to Ukraine.
- 65% of voters, including 51% of Democrats, believe the Republicans should hold up aid to both Israel and Ukraine to get additional border security measures.
VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION
- Biden’s approval rating on immigration dropped 8 points to 38% in the last month.
- 57% of voters believe Trump had better immigration policies than Biden.
- Only 8% of voters knew that over 3 million people crossed the border illegally in the past year; the majority believed the number was under 500,000.
VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP
- 55% of voters say they are worse off personally during Biden’s presidency and 61% say they were better off personally during Trump’s presidency.
- 44% say the economy is strong today, up 6 points in the past six months.
- Inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally (chosen by 40%).
TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN
- 56% of voters believe Trump will act like a dictator if reelected, but 59% believe Democrats are trying to unfairly scare voters by labeling Trump as a dictator.
- 72% believe a vote for Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will not likely serve a full second term.
- Trump leads the head-to-head matchup against Biden by 5 points and leads by 7 points when including third-party candidates.
VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION
- 81% of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden should appear for a deposition by Congress if asked to explain his business dealings.
GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES
- 62% of voters feel university presidents did not go far enough to condemn antisemitism on their campuses in their Congressional testimony (ages 18-24: 67% feel the presidents did go far enough).
- 74% believe students who call for the genocide of Jews should face actions for violating university rules (ages 18-24: 47%).
- 76% believe Jewish students on campus are facing harassment (ages 18-24: 68%).
- 67% of 18-24-year-olds believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated as such (in contrast, 73% of all voters believe this is a false ideology).
The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Media Contact
Sarah Arvizo
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.
September 2024
September 2024
SEPTEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS AND TRUMP DEAD EVEN IN FINAL STRETCH
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Sep 09, 2024, 06:00 ET
47% OF VOTERS APPROVE OF HARRIS’ PERFORMANCE AS VICE PRESIDENT BUT 52% APPROVE OF JOB TRUMP DID AS PRESIDENT
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Sept. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris’ favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating.
Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy. Download key results here.
“Harris has drawn to dead even but Trump has an edge in the underlying numbers given his higher job approval and the overall low approval of the Biden administration,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO.
CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK
- The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.
- Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris. Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.
- 50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.
CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES
- Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.
- Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.
- 49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.
LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION
- Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.
- Less than half of voters approve of Biden’s performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).
- 47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.
PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
- 63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.
- 42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.
- 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO
- 69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.
- 71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.
- More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).
- 57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.
The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.