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September 2025

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SEPTEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: 70% OF VOTERS OPPOSE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, WITH 65% IN FAVOR OF DEMOCRATIC CONCESSIONS

News Provided By:

Stagwell Inc.

Published Date

October 6, 2025, 9:28 AM ET

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL STEADY AT 46% WHILE CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL FALLS 5 PTS. FROM AUGUST

MOST VOTERS UNDERESTIMATE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OVERESTIMATE INFLATION

85% OF VOTERS SAY CELEBRATION OVER KIRK’S DEATH BY MEDIA PERSONALITIES WAS INAPPROPRIATE

71% OF VOTERS SUPPORT SINKING SOUTH AMERICAN SHIPS CARRYING DRUGS INTO THE COUNTRY

34% OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY WILL EVENTUALLY LIVE THE AMERICAN DREAM AND 24% BELIEVE THEY ARE LIVING THE AMERICAN DREAM

78% OF VOTERS SAY AMERICANS ARE BETTER OFF WITH FREE ENTERPRISE RATHER THAN SOCIALISM

56% OF VOTERS SUPPORT TRUMP’S GAZA PEACE PLAN

 

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 46%. Trump’s job approval is highest on fighting crime in U.S. cities (50%), immigration (49%), and returning America to its values (48%), and lowest on handling inflation (40%) and tariffs and trade policy (40%). This month’s poll also covered public opinion on the economy, political violence, the government shutdown, the American Dream, conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

“Voters’ outlook on the country remains largely the same with strong opposition to the government shutdown,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “They feel the rhetoric of today’s political leaders has grown too polarizing and is fueling political violence, and they want leadership that works to unite the country.”

 

CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL DROPS FROM LAST MONTH

  • 40% of voters say the country is on the right track, stable from last month.
  • 34% of voters say their personal financial situation is improving (-1 pt., Aug. 2025), particularly among Republican, male, 25-44 y.o., and urban voters.
  • The Congressional approval rating is at 32% (-5). The Democratic Party approval rating is at 42% (+1) and the Republican Party approval rating is steady at 47%.
  • Among key political figures, voters have the highest net favorable view of Charlie Kirk (+16 net favorable), Erika Kirk (+14), and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+13).
  • 43% of voters say inflation is the most important issue to them personally (-4).

MAJORITY OF VOTERS BELIEVE INFLATION IS ABOVE 3 PERCENT AND THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING

  • 65% of voters believe inflation is above 3 percent (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 62%; Independents: 64%).
  • 56% of voters believe the economy is shrinking rather than growing.
  • Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump’s policies are making the U.S. economy stronger or weaker.
  • 58% of voters say Trump’s tariffs are harming the economy (+3).
  • 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation.

VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY OPPOSE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

  • 70% of voters oppose the government shutdown, with 53% blaming Republicans (Democrats: 76%; Republicans: 31%; Independents: 54%). However, 62% of voters say Republicans will win the shutdown.
  • 65% of voters say Democrats should end the shutdown by accepting a continuing resolution at current spending levels (Democrats: 39%; Republicans: 90%; Independents: 63%).
  • Voters are split on how the shutdown impacts their vote in the midterm elections, with 8% of Democrats they are more likely to vote for Republicans and 9% of Republicans saying they are more likely to vote for Democrats.
  • 55% of voters say the Democrats behind the shutdown are motivated by pleasing their base.

 

THREE IN FOUR VOTERS BELIEVE TODAY’s POLITICAL RHETORIC IS TOO EXTREME, BLAMING IT FOR VIOLENCE

  • 75% of voters say the rhetoric of our politicians has become too extreme (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 65%; Independents: 79%), with 72% saying today’s rhetoric is leading to violence.
  • 58% of voters say Trump’s rhetoric is too extreme. 57% believe the same of rhetoric from leading Democratic and Republican politicians.
  • Though more than three-quarters of voters say assassinations of Charlie Kirk (78%), United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson (77%), and Minnesota Democratic State Representative Melissa Hortman (83%) were unjustified, roughly 1 in 5 say they were justified (Kirk: 22%; Thompson: 23%; Hortman: 17%).
  • 53% of voters say Kirk’s assassination made the country worse. 32% felt angry, 23% felt nothing, and 18% felt worried.
  • 86% of Democrat voters and 83% of Republican voters say it is unjustified to use political violence to advance their party’s goals.
  • 56% of voters believe America can come together with leadership that tried harder to unify it, including a majority across parties.
  • At least two-thirds of voters say assassination attempts on Trump, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Governor Josh Shapiro, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were unjustified.

STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS FOUND MEDIA CELEBRATION OF KIRK’S DEATH INAPPROPRIATE BUT SAY SUCH BEHAVIOR IS PROTECTED BY FREE SPEECH

 

  • 85% of voters say it is inappropriate for media personalities to celebrate Kirk’s death.
  • 62% of voters say the words and actions of those celebrating Kirk’s death is protected by the First Amendment and free speech (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 55%; Independents: 63%).
  • Voters are split on whether it was right of TV networks to fire commentators over Kirk comments (Right: 51%; Wrong: 49%).
  • 54% of voters oppose the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel, and 58% say Disney was right to reinstate him.
  • 64% of voters say social media is operating to encourage political violence today.

MOST OF TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT INCLUDING SINKING BOATS WITH DRUGS, THOUGH A SMALL MAJORITY SAY TRUMP HAS EXCEEDED HIS AUTHORITY AS PRESIDENT

 

  • 18 out of 20 of Trump’s policies continue to receive majority support, with his most popular policies being lowering prescription drug prices (86%), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (78%), and eliminating waste in government expenditures (75%). Adding work requirements to Medicaid programs (42%), tariffs (49%), and deploying the National Guard in cities (51%) are the least popular.
  • 71% of voters support the U.S. destroying boats bringing drugs from South America into the country.
  • 63% of voters say Trump will not solve the Ukraine war (+4), and 64% of voters say Trump will not solve the Israel-Hamas war.
  • 52% of voters say Trump is doing a better job than Joe Biden did as President (-2).
  • 52% of voters say Trump is behaving like a strong president instead of a fascist dictator, though 55% say Trump has exceeded his authority as President (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 24%; Independents: 59%).
  • 56% of voters say Trump is not abiding by all court rulings.

 

AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOR FREE ENTERPRISE OVER SOCIALISM AND BELIEVE IN HARD WORK, BUT A PLURALITY ARE SKEPTICAL THEY WILL EVER ACHIEVE THE AMERICAN DREAM

  • 78% of voters say Americans are better off with free enterprise than socialism, including a majority across political, gender, and age groups, though 37% of voters 18-24 y.o. favor socialism.
  • 38% of voters, a plurality, believe they will never live the American Dream, while 34% say they will eventually live it and 28% say they are living it now.
  • 61% of voters are homeowners, 84% say they own a car, and 54% say they have a job.
  • 57% of voters believe hard work can earn then enough to own a house and have a family, with Republican (73%; net +24 vs. Democrat), male (64%; net +14 vs. female), and 25-44 y.o. (62%; net +12 vs. 55-64 y.o.) voters agreeing with the sentiment most.
  • 59% of voters say a college education is important to economic success (Democrats: 66%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 53%; Men: 62%; Women: 55%).
  • 53% of voters say America is on the verge of unprecedented economic opportunities, believing younger generations today have advantages others did not. But 57% of voters say AI will make it harder to get a job.

STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS VALUE FAMILY AND KIDS, THOUGH YOUNGER VOTERS ARE PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC SUCCESS

  • 71% of voters say having a family is very important to them personally, while 55% say the same about economic success.
  • 71% of voters say having a family is more important than having a good job (18-24 y.o.: 51%).
  • 78% of voters say having children is something they want or wanted.
  • 60% of voters have children, though 28% say they do not expect to have any (Democrats: 31%; Republicans: 22%; Independents: 33%; Male: 32%; Female: 24%; 18-24 y.o.: 32%).

MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT TRUMP’S GAZA PEACE PLAN

  • 51% of voters support Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict (-2 pts., Aug. 2025).
  • 56% of voters support Trump’s 21-point peace plan to end the conflict, with 70% supporting the plan after being told major Arab governments support it.
  • 79% of voters say Israel should accept the plan and 78% say Hamas should accept it. 51% believe Israel has already accepted it, and 64% believe Hamas has rejected it.
  • 83% of voters support the plan’s demands to release of all hostages and create a path to a Palestinian state.
  • 69% of voters agree the long-term answer to the conflict should be a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.
  • 75% of voters support imposing new sanctions on Iran for its continued ambition for nuclear weapons.

 

TRUMP GIVEN CREDIT FOR HIS EFFORTS TO END WAR IN UKRAINE

 

  • 65% of voters support Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
  • 77% of voters support additional sanctions on Russia to end the war, and 68% believe the Trump administration should continue to arm Ukraine and impose sanctions.
  • 57% of voters believe governments that buy Russian oil and gas should be punished with tariffs.
  • 79% of voters say Europe should buy oil from the U.S. instead of from Russia.

 

The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 1-2, 2025, among 2,413 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

 

Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com

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September 2025

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AUGUST HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: 54% OF VOTERS SAY TRUMP IS DOING A BETTER JOB THAN BIDEN, UP 3 PTS. FROM JULY, AS APPROVAL RATING STABILIZES AT 47%

News Provided By:

Stagwell Inc.

Published Date

August 25, 2025, 11:24 AM ET

48% OF VOTERS SAY INFLATION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO THEM PERSONALLY

54% OF VOTERS SAY TRUMP’S ACTIONS IN WASHINGTON, D.C. ARE JUSTIFIED AND NECESSARY

66% OF VOTERS WANT LAWMAKERS TO PRESSURE THE ADMINISTRATION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON EPSTEIN

52% OF VOTERS SATISFIED WITH TRUMP’S NEGOTIATIONS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE, A 5 PT. INCREASE FROM LAST MONTH

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Aug. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 47%, with highest approval among Republican, male, white, 25-44 y.o., and rural voters. Trump’s job approval is highest on fighting crime in U.S. cities (51%), immigration (50%), and returning America to its values (50%), and lowest on handling inflation (41%) and tariffs and trade policy (41%). This month’s poll also covered public opinion on the economy and jobs, crime, the Epstein case, conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

“Trump has really solidified his political base and is maintaining every point of it,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “He is working on a lot of initiatives that will take time to pan out – but unless there is peace in one of these foreign conflicts or a clear consensus about the economy, the country will likely remain in a partisan rut.”

INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY REMAINS TOP ISSUE FOR VOTERS

  • 34% of voters continue to single out price increases, inflation, and affordability as the most important issue facing the country today (+3 pts., July 2025). 26% of voters say it is immigration (-3).
  • 38% of voters say the economy is on the right track, stable from last month.
  • 42% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, particularly among Democrats, Independents, women, and Hispanic voters.
  • Among key political figures, Trump has the highest favorability at 46% (-2 net unfavorable), followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+7 net favorable). Voters have a more unfavorable view of Elon Musk (-15 net unfavorable) and President Joe Biden (-14 net unfavorable).

CONTINUED MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR TRUMP’S POLICIES BUT WEAKNESS AROUND INFLATION AND FOREIGN POLICY

  • 14 out of 15 of Trump’s policies continue to receive majority support, with his most popular policies being lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients (86%), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (75%), and eliminating fraud and waste in government expenditures (73%).
  • 54% of voters say Trump is doing a better job than Joe Biden did as president (+3 pts., July 2025).
  • 62% of voters say Democrats should take more of a wait-and-see attitude toward Trump’s actions (Democrats: 35%; Republicans: 85%; Independents: 66%).
  • 55% of voters say Trump’s policies will increase inflation (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 33%; Independents: 51%), and 55% say his tariffs are harming the economy.
  • 59% of voters say Trump will not solve the Ukraine war, and 64% of voters say Trump will not solve the Israel-Hamas war (+5).

MIXED PERCEPTIONS ON JOBS AND JOB REPORT RELIABILITY

  • 51% of voters say Trump’s policies are leading to more jobs in the country (+2). Voters are similarly split on whether his policies are strengthening the economy (51%) and leading to more investment in the country (52%).
  • Voters are split 50-50 on whether job numbers have been reliable. 59% of Democrats and Independents say they have not been reliable, while 65% of Republicans say they are reliable.
  • 53% of voters say the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was politically motivated.
  • 54% of voters say the U.S. is currently not in a recession (-2), though 58% of Democrats continue to believe the U.S. is in a recession.

VOTERS VIEW AMERICAN CITIES AS UNSAFE, APPROVE OF TRUMP’S ACTIONS IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

  • 54% of voters say Trump’s actions in Washington, D.C. are justified and necessary (Democrats: 28%; Republicans: 85%; Independents: 47%).
  • 40% of voters, a plurality, say crime in the U.S. is increasing.
  • 56% of voters say typical large American cities are unsafe, especially New York City (63%) and Los Angeles (62%). A majority of voters (55%) say the current level of crime in D.C. is about the same as other parts of the country.
  • 54% of voters support the Trump administration declaring a crime emergency in D.C. and the deployment of the National Guard, but 53% of voters oppose Trump’s use of his presidential authority to take over local police.
  • 54% of voters say Trump’s actions in D.C. are a distraction from other unpopular policies and personal problems.
  • 73% of voters say Trump’s deployment of the National Guard in D.C. is a signal he will perform similar actions in other cities in the future, including a majority across political parties.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS WANT TRANSPARENCY IN THE EPSTEIN CASE, SAYING IT WILL AFFECT THEIR OPINION OF TRUMP

  • 65% of voters say transparency in the Epstein case is important to their opinion of Trump (Democrats: 76%; Republicans: 60%; Independents: 59%).
  • 72% of voters say they are familiar with the Jeffrey Epstein case, and 63% have heard of the Department of Justice and FBI memo of findings released in July 2025.
  • 42% of voters say Trump has handled the Epstein case poorly, with a plurality of voters saying the same for FBI officials and Attorney General Pam Bondi.
  • 79% of voters say the Epstein case likely involves a cover-up by powerful elites, including a majority across political parties.
  • 66% of voters say lawmakers should pressure the Trump administration to release more information about the Epstein case (Democrats: 85%; Republicans: 47%; Independents: 67%).
  • Voters trust independent media (e.g. journalists or podcasts) the most when it comes to full transparency on the Epstein case (52%) over the FBI (47%), DOJ (45%), mainstream news outlets (44%), Trump (39%), and Congress (39%).

VOTERS BLAME HAMAS FOR FAMINE IN GAZA, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT ISRAEL IN CONFLICT

  • 74% of voters continue to support Israel over Hamas in the Israel-Hamas conflict (-3). 51% of voters disapprove of Israel’s conduct during the conflict, while 77% disapprove of Hamas’ conduct.
  • 53% of voters support Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict thus far.
  • 69% of voters say there is a famine in Gaza, including a majority across age groups and political parties. 61% believe Hamas is responsible for the famine (Democrats: 50%; Republicans: 74%; Independents: 60%).
  • Voters are split on whether they believe criticism of Israel is motivated more by concern for Palestinian human rights (51%) or antisemitism (49%), as well as whether they believe Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza (50-50).
  • 57% of voters support the U.S. providing offensive military aid to Israel (Democrats: 44%; Republicans: 74%; Independents: 51%).
  • 85% of voters say the U.S. should continue to take all actions necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon (+5). 67% favor a negotiated deal that permanently blocks nuclear weapons development.

TRUMP GIVEN CREDIT FOR HIS EFFORTS TO END WAR IN UKRAINE

  • 66% of voters support Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine. 52% say they are satisfied with how Trump is managing negotiations to end the war between Ukraine and Russia (+5).
  • 57% of voters agree Trump deserves a lot of credit for pulling off these meetings regardless of whether he succeeds (Democrats: 31%; Republicans: 87%; Independents: 52%). 60% say Biden was not capable of pulling off such meetings with world leaders.
  • 60% of voters say the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was unsuccessful in advancing peace, while 51% of voters say the meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders was successful.
  • 67% of voters say Putin is playing games and stalling with the U.S. and the West (-6). 67% say Zelenskyy genuinely wants to end the war (+6).
  • 67% of voters say the Trump administration should continue to provide weaponry to Ukraine and impose further economic sanctions on Russia (+2), including a majority across political parties. 69% of voters say Ukraine should receive direct security guarantees from the U.S. if it makes concessions to end the war (+4).

The August Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on August 20-21, 2025, among 2,025 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com

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JULY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: OPINIONS ON ``BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL`` SPLIT WITH 44% OF VOTERS SUPPORTING IT, BUT MOST POLICIES HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT WITH MANY POPULAR TAX CUTS

News Provided By:

Stagwell Inc.

Published Date

July 14, 2025, 10:02 AM ET

45% OF VOTERS SAY INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE TO THEM PERSONALLY, UP 6 POINTS FROM JUNE

69% OF VOTERS SAY BIDEN’S OPEN BORDER WAS A DELIBERATE POLICY

80% OF VOTERS SUPPORT THE U.S. TAKING ALL ACTIONS NECESSARY TO PREVENT IRAN FROM OBTAINING A NUCLEAR WEAPON

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., July 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 47% (+1 pt., June 2025), with highest approval among Republican, male, 35-44 y.o., white, and rural voters. Trump’s job approval continues to be strongest on immigration (50%) and returning America to its values (50%), and weakest on tariffs and trade policy (42%) and handling inflation (42%). This month’s poll also covered public opinion on the economy, immigration, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” tariffs, conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

“Trump’s approval rating has stabilized, but it’s a split electorate and the administration will ultimately rise or fall based on his ability to handle inflation,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But the administration has a lot to work with in terms of gaining support for the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ with many individual policy proposals and tax cuts in the bill popular across political parties.”

VOTERS WHO STRONGLY DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP TICKS UP BUT DEMOCRATIC PARTY APPROVAL RATING REMAINS UNDERWATER

  • 38% of voters say they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as President, up 6 points from February 2025. But the Democratic Party approval rating remains low at 40% (-2 pts., June 2025), while the Republican Party approval rating is at 48% (+1).
  • 56% of voters say the economy is on the wrong track.
  • 43% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (+4 pts., May 2025). Democrats, Independents, women, 55-64 y.o., Black, and rural voters are more likely than not to say it is getting worse.
  • Inflation, immigration, the economy, and healthcare are the top important issues for voters today, with 24% prioritizing healthcare (+6).
  • Among key political figures, Trump has the highest favorability at 47% (0 net favorable), followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+5 net favorable). Voters have a more unfavorable view of Elon Musk (-16 net unfavorable) and Chuck Schumer (-15 net unfavorable). Most voters have not heard of or have no opinion of Zohran Mamdani (-8 net unfavorable).

VOTERS SUPPORT MOST OF TRUMP’S POLICIES FROM HIS FIRST SIX MONTHS BUT ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON TRADE DEALS AND FOREIGN CONFLICTS

  • The large majority of Trump’s policies continue to have majority support, with 85% of voters supporting lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients, and 79% of voters supporting deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. On the other hand, 56% of voters oppose making cost cuts to Medicaid by adding work requirements, and 49% of voters oppose placing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada.
  • 55% of voters support the decision of the Supreme Court to limit the ability of individual federal judges to issue nationwide injunctions, including 33% of Democrats.
  • 43% of voters, a plurality, say Trump is doing worse than expected (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 14%; Independents: 47%).
  • 49% of voters believe Trump is making good deals on behalf of the country (-3 pts., June 2025).
  • 59% of voters say Trump will not solve the Israel-Hamas conflict (-6).

17 OUT OF 21 POLICY PROPOSALS WITHIN THE “BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL” HAVE MAJORITY SUPPORT AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE HEARD OF THE BILL

  • 80% of voters have heard of the “Big Beautiful Bill” (+13).
  • 44% of voters support the bill (+4), while 44% oppose it (+2). Among those who have heard of the bill, 48% of voters oppose it (+2 net oppose; Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 19%; Independents: 45%).
  • Policy proposals within the bill like expanding health savings accounts for farmers (76%), reducing federal spending by $1.3 trillion (69%), increasing the child tax credit (67%), eliminating taxes on tips (66%), boosting military and naval spending (66%), and investing in rural broadband (66%) are the most popular, with majority support across political parties and among those who have heard of the bill.
  • Taxing remittances sent abroad (43%) and removing tax and registration for firearm silencers (31%) have the lowest support among the bill’s policies.
  • 52% of voters say making 2017 tax cuts permanent will increase federal debt (+12 pts., June 2025).

VOTERS NOW SEE THE ECONOMY SOLIDLY IN TRUMP’S HANDS

  • 62% of voters say Trump is mostly responsible for the state of the economy today (+7), including a majority across political parties.
  • 53% of voters trust the Trump administration and Republicans more than Democrats in Congress to manage the economy (+3).
  • 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation and that his tariffs are harming the economy.
  • 56% of voters say the U.S. is not in a recession, though 59% of Democrats say we are in a recession.
  • 46% of voters, a plurality, say recent economic news is mostly negative, though more voters say they’ve seen mostly positive news stories in the last few weeks (31%; +7 pts., June 2025).

TRUMP IMMIGRATION POLICIES RECEIVE STRONG SUPPORT, WITH TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS ATTRIBUTING OPEN BORDER TO BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

  • 60% of voters support the Trump administration’s efforts to close the southern border (-3 pts., June 2025; Democrats: 34%; Republicans: 89%; Independents: 55%), and 75% support the administration’s efforts to deport criminals who are here illegally, including a majority across political parties.
  • 67% of voters say the border was open rather than secure under the Biden administration, and 69% say it was a deliberate policy (Democrats: 48%; Republicans: 88%; Independents: 60%).
  • 79% of voters say convicted criminals who are here illegally should be deported after their sentence is over, including a majority across parties.
  • 65% of voters oppose allowing cities and towns to block the deportation of convicted criminals (Democrats: 52%; Republicans: 72%; Independents: 69%).
  • 59% say more due process is needed to prevent unfair deportations, and 52% of voters say Democrats are fighting for human rights in defending deportations.
  • 55% of voters support automatic citizenship for the children of those who are here illegally, and 65% say the Constitution requires birthright citizenship (Democrats: 77%; Republicans: 54%; Independents: 66%).

U.S. STRIKE ON IRAN SEES MAJORITY SUPPORT; VOTERS WANT THE U.S. TO DEFEND ISRAEL IF IRAN RETALIATES

  • 78% of voters support Israel over Iran in the Israel–Iran conflict, including a majority across political parties and age groups.
  • 58% of voters support the Trump administration’s strike on Iran’s nuclear sites last month, including a majority of voters over 25 y.o., and 54% say it was a major accomplishment of the U.S. military.
  • 51% of voters say the strike did severe damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
  • 61% of voters support the U.S. defending Israel if Iran retaliates (Democrats: 51%; Republicans: 76%; Independents: 55%), and 86% say Iran should not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
  • 61% of voters favor a permanent deal preventing nuclear weapons development over a temporary deal.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS WANT HAMAS TO LEAVE GAZA

  • 77% of voters support Israel over Hamas in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and 80% say Hamas must release all remaining hostages without any conditions, including a majority across political parties and age groups.
  • 56% of voters say Israel should only make a deal with Hamas if Hamas leaves Gaza (Democrats: 48%; Republicans: 62%: Independents: 56%).
  • 53% of voters support Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict (+2).

VOTERS WANT TRUMP TO BE TOUGHER ON PUTIN WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR PROVIDING WEAPONRY TO UKRAINE

  • 60% of voters say Trump has not been tough enough with Putin (Democrats: 73%; Republicans: 48%; Independents: 58%).
  • 53% of voters say they are not satisfied with Trump’s handling of Ukraine–Russia talks (+6 net unsatisfied).
  • 65% of voters support continuing to provide weaponry to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia (+3 pts., June 2025), including a majority across political parties.
  • 72% of voters say America’s relationship with Ukraine is more valuable than with Russia (+4).
  • 73% of voters say Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games and stalling with the West rather than genuinely wanting to end the war in Ukraine.

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on July 6-8, 2025, among 2,044 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com

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