November 2024
November 2024
November 2024
November 2024
POST-ELECTION NOVEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: TRUMP APPROVAL RATING AT 54% AS VOTERS HOPE HE WILL ADDRESS TOP ISSUES OF INFLATION AND IMMIGRATION
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Nov 18, 2024, 8:06 AM EDT
80% OF VOTERS PRIORITIZE CANDIDATES’ POSITION ON ISSUES OVER PERSONAL QUALITIES IN CASTING THEIR VOTE
71% OF VOTERS SAY ELON MUSK’S ENDORSEMENT HAD THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THE ELECTION
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation.
“This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he’s won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.”
TRUMP +2 ON HARRIS IN FINAL POLLING; +4 AMONG INDEPENDENTS
- 50% of voters say they voted for Trump, including 92% of Republicans and 49% of Independents; while 48% of voters say they voted for Harris, including 90% of Democrats and 45% of Independents.
- 82% of voters say they voted (Democrat: 86%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 70%). Non-voters cited lack of motivation, feeling like their vote didn’t matter, and dislike of the candidates as top reasons they did not vote.
- 37% of voters voted in-person on Election Day, 32% voted in-person before Election Day, and 31% voted by mail. 56% of the electorate say they made up their mind on who they were voting for before September. 34% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans, and 32% of Independents voted by mail.
- 11% of the 2024 electorate were first-time voters. 31% of first-time voters decided who they were voting for before September, 24% decided the week of the election, and 20% decided on Election Day.
- 74% of voters voted on down-ballot races (House of Representatives: 62%; U.S. Senate: 52%; Governor: 34%).
VOTERS MOTIVATED BY ISSUES AND CHANGE
- 80% of voters say the candidate’s position on issues was the most important factor when it came to casting their vote compared to personal qualities (Harris: 71%; Trump: 90%; Democrat: 76%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 78%;).
- The majority of voters said their response to the most important issue facing the country was a main reason for their candidate choice. Of those who said immigration was the most important issue facing the country, 87% said it was one of the main reasons, if not the main reason for their vote (abortion: 79%; inflation: 77%; climate change: 66%). 29% of voters said inflation was the main reason for their vote, 28% pointed to immigration, and 26% pointed to abortion.
- 76% of voters say they voted for change rather than continuity in how the country is managed (Harris: 60%; Trump: 91%; Democrat: 62%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 78%).
- Of key events from the presidential campaign, voters say the Trump vs. Harris debate (36%), Trump surviving the assassination attempt (32%), and Trump declaring no tax on tips (32%) made them more likely to vote for Trump.
TRUMP AND GOP APPROVAL RATING REFLECT ELECTION RESULTS AND DISCONTENT WITH DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, INFLATION, AND IMMIGRATION
- Trump’s approval rating as president-elect is at 54%, 12 points higher than Biden’s as president, including 91% of Republicans and 49% of Independents. The majority of male, 18-54 year old, white, Hispanic, urban, and rural voters approve of Trump.
- 49% of voters approve of the Republican Party’s job (+3 from October), while 44% approve of that of the Democratic Party (-3 from October).
- 27% of voters say the country is on the right track, down 4 percentage points from October (Democrat: 29%; Republican: 32%; Independent: 17%).
- Inflation (45%) and immigration (16%) continue to be the most important issues to voters personally, with inflation a concern across party lines, immigration of more concern for Republicans (28%), and abortion (18%) and climate change (13%) more of a concern for Democrats.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP STILL DIVIDED FOLLOWING THE ELECTION
- 54% of voters say Trump has been trying to unify rather than divide the country since the election (Democrat: 24%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 50%).
- 52% of voters believe Trump is a threat to democracy (Democrat: 81%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 45%). 53% say Trump should continue to be tried on criminal charges (Democrat: 87%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 55%).
- 68% of voters say their greatest hope for the new Trump administration is to end inflation and price increases (Democrat: 57%; Republican: 81%; Independent: 68%), followed by the revitalization of the American economy (43%) and American values (42%).
- 46% of voters say their greatest fear is Trump behaving like a dictator (Democrat: 74%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 49%). Other top fears among Democrats are irreparable damage to the U.S. government and agencies (56%) and the Trump administration moving too far to the right (55%). The greatest fear among Republicans is massive protests by the left (47%).
- Of Trump’s cabinet appointments, more voters favor rather than oppose Susie Wiles (+11), Mike Huckabee (+6), Vivek Ramaswamy (+5), and Marco Rubio (+3). Voters are split on Elon Musk (+1) and oppose Matt Gaetz (-8).
VOTERS FOLLOWED ELECTION NEWS CLOSELY, RELYING ON TV AND SOCIAL MEDIA; BELIEVE MUSK HAD BIGGEST IMPACT
- 81% of voters say they followed the presidential election somewhat or very closely.
- 46% of voters say they used TV news channels (Democrat: 45%; Republican: 49%; Independent: 42%), while 23% used social media platforms (Democrat: 26%; Republican: 22%; Independent: 20%) and 10% relied on news outlet websites.
- ABC News (36%) and Fox TV News (33%) were the most popular TV channels for election coverage, while Facebook (43%), Google (39%), and YouTube (39%) were the most popular social media platforms for news.
- 51% of voters say they felt election news was fair while 49% believe it was biased. Among those who felt news was biased, 57% say it was biased against Trump and Republicans (Democrat: 23%; Republicans: 87%; Independent: 51%).
- 60% of voters say journalists today are mostly practicing advocacy as opposed to unbiased journalism.
- Elon Musk (65%), Taylor Swift (63%), and Oprah Winfrey (54%) were the most known endorsements heading into the election. 71% believe Musk’s endorsement had the biggest impact on the election (Joe Rogan: 43%; Taylor Swift: 36%).
- 42% of voters say Elon Musk’s endorsement had some or significant impact on their vote (Democrat: 32%; Republican: 55%; Independent: 31%), and 37% say the same about Joe Rogan (Democrat: 31%; Republican: 47%; Independent: 28%).
The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 13-14, 2024, among 1,732 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
PR@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.
October 2024
October 2024
October 2024
October 2024
OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS AHEAD BY ONE POINT NATIONALLY BUT TRUMP LEADS WITH BATTLEGROUND STATE VOTERS
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Oct 14, 2024, 9:54 PM EDT
MAIL-IN VOTER BEHAVIOR EVENS OUT ACROSS PARTY ID, ONLY A 7-POINT GAP BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS (DOWN 12 POINTS FROM NOVEMBER 2020)
85% OF VOTERS SAY CBS SHOULD RELEASE FULL TRANSCRIPT OF HARRIS 60 MINUTES INTERVIEW
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Download key results here.
“There is no definitive answer – it’s about as close a race as you can possibly get, well within the confidence interval of any poll,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Harris has lost some momentum from when she was first nominated but is still driving strong messages around her personality and some of her economic measures, while Trump leads on immigration, crime, and foreign policy but has been less effective on economic messaging.”
HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES
- 81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).
- Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.
- There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).
- 50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).
- Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).
- 14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.
- Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).
CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY
- Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.
- 63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).
- Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.
- Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.
CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS
- 85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).
- Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).
- 58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.
- 38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.
- 67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.
APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND
- Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).
- 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.
- Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).
- 61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION
- 52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.
- 73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.
- 63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).
- 63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
- 65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.
The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.
October 2024
December 2023
DECEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: MOST VOTERS WANT THE U.S. TO SUPPORT ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
Dec 18, 2023, 11:21 ET
WIDE GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL PERSISTS: MOST 18-24 VOTERS SEE JEWS AS OPPRESSORS
BIDEN’S IMMIGRATION APPROVAL RATING DROPS 8 POINTS TO 38% IN THE LAST MONTH
ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS RISE BUT 55% STILL FEEL WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Dec. 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here.
“There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates.”
AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE
- 65% of voters think the U.S. should be supporting Israel in its war against Hamas; 65% separately think the U.S. should be supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
- 54% of voters support giving $14 billion in aid to Israel; 49% support giving an additional $50 billion in aid to Ukraine. Republicans are most likely to support the aid to Israel and Democrats most support aid to Ukraine.
- 65% of voters, including 51% of Democrats, believe the Republicans should hold up aid to both Israel and Ukraine to get additional border security measures.
VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION
- Biden’s approval rating on immigration dropped 8 points to 38% in the last month.
- 57% of voters believe Trump had better immigration policies than Biden.
- Only 8% of voters knew that over 3 million people crossed the border illegally in the past year; the majority believed the number was under 500,000.
VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP
- 55% of voters say they are worse off personally during Biden’s presidency and 61% say they were better off personally during Trump’s presidency.
- 44% say the economy is strong today, up 6 points in the past six months.
- Inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally (chosen by 40%).
TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN
- 56% of voters believe Trump will act like a dictator if reelected, but 59% believe Democrats are trying to unfairly scare voters by labeling Trump as a dictator.
- 72% believe a vote for Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will not likely serve a full second term.
- Trump leads the head-to-head matchup against Biden by 5 points and leads by 7 points when including third-party candidates.
VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION
- 81% of voters, including 72% of Democrats, believe Hunter Biden should appear for a deposition by Congress if asked to explain his business dealings.
GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES
- 62% of voters feel university presidents did not go far enough to condemn antisemitism on their campuses in their Congressional testimony (ages 18-24: 67% feel the presidents did go far enough).
- 74% believe students who call for the genocide of Jews should face actions for violating university rules (ages 18-24: 47%).
- 76% believe Jewish students on campus are facing harassment (ages 18-24: 68%).
- 67% of 18-24-year-olds believe Jews as a class are oppressors and should be treated as such (in contrast, 73% of all voters believe this is a false ideology).
The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Media Contact
Sarah Arvizo
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE Stagwell Inc.