June 2025
June 2025
June 2025
JUNE HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: TRUMP APPROVAL STRONGEST ON IMMIGRATION AND 56% OF VOTERS SUPPORT BRINGING IN THE NATIONAL GUARD TO STAVE OFF RIOTS
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
June 16, 2024, 08:47 AM ET
56% OF VOTERS SAY TRUMP IS LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST INFLATION
VOTERS FAVOR TRUMP OVER MUSK IN FEUD BUT 52% OF VOTERS THINK THE “BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL” WILL MAKE THE ECONOMY WORSE
67% OF VOTERS BELIEVE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF U.S. FEDERAL DEBT IS UNSUSTAINABLE, UP 5 PTS. FROM MAY
60% OF VOTERS WANT THE ADMINISTRATION TO SUPPORT ISRAEL EFFORT TO TAKE OUT IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM; 85% SAY IRAN MUST NOT OBTAIN NUKES
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., June 16, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 46% (-6 pts. from Feb. 2025), with highest approval among Republican, male, 25-44 y.o., white, and rural voters. Trump’s job approval is strongest on immigration (49%) and returning America to its values (48%), and weakest on tariffs and trade policy (41%) and handling inflation (42%). This month’s poll also featured a special report on Middle East-focused issues and covered public opinion on the economy, immigration, government efficiency, taxes, and Ukraine. Download the key results here.
“Trump continues to see the support of those who voted for him, hanging in there with the approval ratings and healthy support of his job on immigration,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Whether the presidency gets back to approval ratings in the 50’s will depend on whether people get a sense of lower inflation and economic prosperity.”
VOTERS SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY, STILL PRIORITIZING INFLATION
- 52% of voters say the U.S. economy is strong today (+6 pts. since Apr. 2025).
- 39% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the right track.
- Inflation (34%) and immigration (32%) remain the top two issues for voters, with more voters saying immigration is the most important issue facing the country today compared to last month (+5).
- Immigration is especially important to Republican voters and voters over 65 y.o., while Democrats, Independents, 35-64 y.o., Hispanic, and suburban voters are especially concerned about inflation.
- 39% of voters and a plurality across political parties say inflation is the most important issue to them personally.
REPUBLICAN PARTY APPROVAL RATING DIPS, THOUGH VOTERS HOLD FAVORABLE VIEWS TOWARD KEY REPUBLICAN POLITICIANS
- The Republican Party’s approval rating is at 47% (-5), with disapproval highest among Democrats, Independents, 18-24 y.o., Black, and Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s approval rating is steady at 42%.
- Among key politicians today, voters have a more favorable view of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+6 net favorable), Vice President J.D. Vance (+2), and Mike Johnson (+2), and a more unfavorable view of Chuck Schumer (-14), Elon Musk (-13), and Karen Bass (-9).
- Of key institutions, voters have the most favorable views of the U.S. military (+64 net favorable) and police (+40), and hold net positive views on Harvard (+24) and Columbia (+14) University.
MOST TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT, WITH VOTERS TAKING A WAIT-AND-SEE ATTITUDE
- A majority of voters support most of Trump’s policies, with lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients (84% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (80%), and eliminating fraud and waste in government expenditures (74%) the most popular, including a majority across political parties.
- 58% of voters want Democrats to take a wait-and-see attitude toward Trump’s policies.
- 55% of voters support moderate Democrats who are willing to compromise with Trump over Democrats calling to “fight harder” against the administration.
- 44% of voters, a plurality, say Trump is doing worse than expected as president (+1), 29% say he is doing better than expected (-2), and 26% say he is doing as expected (0).
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT SENDING REINFORCEMENT TO HALT VIOLENCE TOWARD FEDERAL AGENTS BUT BLAME TRUMP FOR ESCALATION OF L.A. RIOTS
- A majority of voters continue to support the administration’s immigration measures, with 63% supporting its actions to close the southern border and 74% supporting its efforts to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes.
- 57% of voters support moves by Democrats to stop deportations until deportees can have trials (Democrats: 79%; Republicans: 33%; Independents: 61%).
- 62% of voters are familiar with the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. Of those who have heard of his case, 57% believe he is likely a MS-13 gang member.
- 71% of voters believe sanctuary cities and states who oppose the administration’s immigration policies should deploy their police force to stop violence towards federal agents, including a majority across political parties.
- 55% of voters blame Trump for the escalation of immigration-related unrest in Los Angeles over L.A. Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Gavin Newson (Democrats: 69%; Republicans: 44%; Independents: 52%).
VOTERS WANT TO BALANCE THE BUDGET BUT DON’T WANT CUTS TO ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS
- 79% of voters believe the U.S. government should move to balance the budget in the next few years (Democrats: 74%; Republicans: 86%; Independents: 77%).
- Voters prioritize reducing the budget deficit over keeping federal government spending and defense spending at their current levels, but view keeping spending on entitlement programs at their current levels as equally important.
- 42% of voters, a plurality, believe cutting government programs like EV tax credits and scientific research is not justified for the purpose of reducing the deficit.
- Of federal programs, voters most strongly believe LGBTQ+ studies, foreign aid, and EV credits should see significant cuts, favoring keeping current levels of spending for social security, veterans benefits, and Medicare.
CONCERN THE “BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL” WILL ADD TO FEDERAL DEBT
- 67% of voters have heard about Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” with 50% of voters who have heard of the bill, a plurality, opposing it.
- 42% of voters, a plurality, believe the bill will add too much to the federal debt.
- 58% of voters say the amount of taxes they are paying has increased over the last few years.
- Of the bill’s policy proposals, voters most strongly support expanding health savings accounts and increasing support for farmers (70%), ranchers, and disaster recovery, reducing federal spending by $1.3 trillion (66%), and increasing the child tax credit to $2,500 per family (62%).
- 49% of voters say they trust neither Trump nor Elon Musk on economic policy, though more voters trust Trump over Musk (+26 net). More voters also believe Trump is acting more in the public interest than Musk (+19).
MAJORITY OF VOTERS BELIEVE TRUMP’S TARIFFS ARE HARMING THE ECONOMY
- 57% of voters say Trump’s tariff policies are harming the economy.
- 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation (Democrats: 85%; Republicans: 24%; Independents: 61%). 55% of voters hold him responsible for the state of today’s economy.
- 52% of voters think President Trump is making good deals on behalf of the country (+3), with 56% of voters believing he will reach a deal with China.
- 53% of voters believe the media is fairly reporting on the economy.
- 56% of voters do not believe we are currently in a recession, though 55% of Democrats believe we are in one.
PESSIMISM ON WHETHER TRUMP CAN RESOLVE FOREIGN CONFLICTS AMIDST CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
- A majority of voters don’t believe Trump can solve foreign conflicts, with 63% of voters saying they do not believe Trump will solve the Ukraine war (+5), and 65% of voters saying they do not believe he will solve the Israel-Hamas war (+6).
- 73% of voters believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games and stalling rather than genuinely wanting to end the war in Ukraine (+7).
- 61% of voters say Trump has not been tough enough on Putin.
- 62% of voters support the administration continuing to provide weaponry to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia, including a majority across political parties.
- 68% of voters say the U.S.’ relationship with Ukraine is more valuable than that with Russia, favoring Ukraine’s minerals agreement and military actions over Russia’s nuclear power and potential position as a counterweight to China.
VOTERS WANT THE ELIMINATION OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT PROGRAM AS A PRECONDITION FOR ANY U.S.-IRAN DEAL
- 74% of voters say Iran giving up nuclear enrichment should be a precondition for any U.S.-Iran deal (Democrats: 72%; Republicans: 73%; Independents; 76%).
- 60% of voters support Trump opening negotiations with Iran directly over nuclear weapons.
- 32% of voters say such negotiations would lead to a good deal (-7 pts., May 2025), 23% say they would lead to a bad deal, and 45% say they would lead to no deal at all.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION TO TAKE OUT IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM
- 85% of voters say Iran should not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, including a strong majority across political parties.
- 54% of voters support taking out Iran’s nuclear weapons program with a U.S. military operation.
- 60% of voters say the administration should support an Israel effort to take out Iran’s nuclear weapons program if there is no acceptable deal (Democrats: 47%; Republicans: 78%; Independents: 54%).
VOTERS SAY ISRAEL IS JUSTIFIED IN MILITARY RESPONSE UNTIL HAMAS HAS RETURNED ALL HOSTAGES
- 62% of voters say Israel is justified in continuing its military operations in Gaza until Hamas has returned all hostages (Democrats: 50%; Republicans: 78%; Independents: 56%).
- 80% of voters support Hamas releasing all remaining hostages without any conditions, including a majority across political parties.
- 75% of voters and a majority across political parties and age groups support Israel over Hamas.
- 51% of voters support President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict so far (-3). 72% of voters 18-24 y.o. oppose his handling of the conflict.
The June Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on June 11-12, 2025, among 2,097 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com
June 2025
May 2025
MAY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: TRUMP APPROVAL HOLDS STEADY AS ATTITUDES TOWARD THE ECONOMY BOUNCE BACK, BUT VOTERS EXPRESS CONCERN HE IS EXCEEDING GUARDRAILS ON TARIFFS AND DEPORTATIONS
News Provided By:
Stagwell Inc.
Published Date
May 19, 2024, 9:00 AM ET
51% OF VOTERS SAY THE ECONOMY IS STRONG TODAY, UP 5 POINTS FROM APRIL
VOTERS VIEW TRUMP’S IMMIGRATION POLICIES AS HIS BIGGEST ACHIEVEMENT AND TARIFFS AS BIGGEST FAILURE IN FIRST 100 DAYS AS PRESIDENT
MAJORITY OF VOTERS FAVOR TRUMP’S TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 47% (-1 pts., Apr. 2025), with 87% of Republican voters approving and 83% of Democrats and 50% of Independents disapproving. Approval is higher among male than female voters, with a 17-point gender gap, and among white, rural, and 25-64 y.o. voters. Trump received the strongest approval on immigration (51%) and returning America to its values (51%) and the weakest approval (42%) on tariffs and trade policy and handling inflation (43%). This month’s poll also covered public opinion on the economy, immigration, tariffs, government efficiency, Middle East, and Ukraine. Download key results here.
“The majority of Trump’s policies continue to see strong support especially on immigration and government efficiency, even though there is concern Trump has exceeded guardrails with executive orders and tariffs,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “If he is able to successfully lower the price of prescription drugs and hold down the fort on inflation, he will be able to unlock 10% more of voters in his approval rating.”
VOTERS MORE OPTIMISTIC ON THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND THEIR PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
- 42% of voters say the country is on the right track (+3 pts., Apr. 2025; +16, Nov. 2024).
- 34% of voters say their personal financial situation is improving (+2), while 39% say their personal financial situation is getting worse (-6), the lowest percentage since October 2021. Republican, male, Black, and 18-44 y.o. voters are more likely than not to say it is improving.
- The Republican Party’s approval rating reached 52%, the highest approval rating for the party since March 2023.
- The Democratic Party’s approval rating is at 42%, with more urban voters approving than disapproving (+4 pts. net approve), and more suburban (-22) and rural (-32) voters disapproving.
- Among Trump’s cabinet members, voters have a more favorable view of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+9 net favorable), Marco Rubio (+4), and Tulsi Gabbard (+4), and a more unfavorable view of Elon Musk (-8) and Pete Hegseth (-4). Voters are split on Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance.
- Inflation and the economy remain the top issues for voters across political parties. 40% of voters say inflation is the most important issue to them personally.
MOST OF TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT, INCLUDING STRONGEST SUPPORT FOR LOWERING DRUG PRICES
- Voters continue to support Trump’s immigration and government efficiency policies, but oppose caps to Medicaid and tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. 70% of voters support raising the top income tax rate.
- 84% of voters support lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients (Democrats: 79%; Republicans: 89%; Independents: 82%).
- 59% of voters hold Trump responsible for the state of the economy today.
- Voters are split on whether Trump is making good or bad tariff deals on behalf of the country, but 60% believe he will reach a trade deal with China.
- 58% of voters say Trump will not solve the Ukraine war, and 59% say the same about the Israel-Hamas war.
- 40% of voters, a plurality, say making the 2017 Tax Cuts permanent will not make a difference in U.S. government debt, but more voters saying it will increase (35%) rather than decrease (25%) debt.
THOUGH VOTERS REMAIN SPLIT ON TARIFFS, VOTERS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE ECONOMY AS MARKET FEARS COOL DOWN
- 57% of voters do not believe we are in a recession.
- 50% of voters have confidence Trump’s policies will lead to stronger economic growth, though 54% of voters believe Trump is losing the battle against inflation.
- Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump’s policies are making the U.S. economy stronger, leading to more jobs, and bringing more investment, with Independents more pessimistic on the impact of his policies.
- 57% of voters believe Trump’s tariff policies are harming the economy (Democrats: 87%; Republicans: 22%; Independents: 64%). 49% of voters, a plurality, say his administration went too far with tariffs.
- 57% of voters believe the Trump administration has some wins to show for its tariff policies, while 55% say they will play out successfully with time.
- 60% of voters say the U.S. has been taken advantage of by other countries when it comes to trade.
- Overall, 46% of voters support the administration’s tariff program (+1, Apr. 2025) and 47% oppose it (0), with a plurality of Independents (47%) opposing.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT DEPORTING ILLEGAL CRIMINALS BUT WANT DEPORTATIONS TO FOLLOW DUE PROCESS
- 63% of voters support the administration’s actions to close the Southern border.
- 75% of voters support deporting illegal criminals, though 53% of voters believe the administration is unfairly deporting people who are not really criminals.
- 57% of voters support Democratic efforts to stop deportations and ensure hearings and trials take place before deportation, and 59% believe Democrats are defending human rights in doing so. But voters are split on whether illegal immigrations should be deported promptly (51%) or await trial (49%).
- 63% favor sending convicted and imprisoned illegal immigrants to serve their sentence in another country.
- 52% of voters say the Trump administration does not have a case to suspend habeas corpus rights.
VOTERS WANT CUTS IN GOVERNMENT SPENDING BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE SUCCESS OF DOGE
- Voters continue to overwhelmingly support moving to balance the budget in the next few years (80%) and reducing government expenditures (78%), with at least a two-thirds majority across parties.
- 62% of voters believe the current level of U.S. federal government debt is unsustainable (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 46%; Independents: 72%).
- Voters are split 50-50 on whether DOGE has been successful in meeting its stated mission so far, with 55% of voters saying it has been effective at cutting spending.
- 67% of voters support the goal of cutting $1 trillion in government expenditures, but 59% of voters do not believe Elon Musk and DOGE will be able to hit the goal by the end of the year (+2).
- Voters are unsure of how much DOGE has saved the U.S. government to date, with 51% of voters estimating DOGE has saved under $100 billion – $60 billion less than DOGE’s alleged savings.
- 54% of voters say Musk and DOGE have gone about making cuts to government expenses in the wrong way so far.
VOTERS FAVOR RELATIONS WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISRAEL BUT HAVE CONCERNS OVER JET FROM QATAR
- 59% of voters support Trump’s efforts to have strong relations with Saudi Arabia (Democrats: 34%; Republicans: 84%; Independents: 56%); and 52% say Saudi Arabia can be a trusted partner.
- 54% of voters support Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict so far (+3, Apr. 2025).
- 77% of voters and a majority across age groups support Israel over Hamas.
- 62% of voters support Trump opening nuclear weapons negotiations with Iran directly (+2), and 39% say such negotiations will lead to a good deal (+7).
- 62% of voters say Trump’s acceptance of the luxury Boeing 747 from Qatar raises ethical concerns about corruption (Democrats: 85%; Republicans: 40%; Independents: 62%).
- 59% of voters oppose taking sanctions off the new Syrian government when told the new government is led by a former guerilla accused of terrorism.
SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE REMAINS HIGH AS VOTERS WANT TRUMP TO BE TOUGHER ON RUSSIA
- 66% of voters think Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing games and stalling the U.S. and the West, while 62% of voters believe Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy genuinely wants to end the war.
- 62% of voters believe the Trump administration should continue to provide weaponry to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia (Democrats: 71%; Republicans: 59%; Independents: 56%).
- 64% of voters believe Ukraine should receive direct security guarantees from the U.S. were it to make concessions to end the war with Russia, including a majority across parties.
- 59% of voters believe Trump has not been tough enough when dealing with Putin and the Russians.
- Voters are split 50-50 on whether they are satisfied with Trump’s negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with 79% of Republicans satisfied and 76% of Democrats and 55% of Independents not satisfied.
The May Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on May 14-15, 2025, among 1,903 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com